How Do I Make Better Decisions?

And how do I get my kids / spouse / coworkers to stop making dumb ones?

Sometimes we make choices that, in retrospect, don’t seem so wise once we’re trapped in a playground structure.

What happens inside our decision-making brain is kind of ... weird.

When researchers looked at how pilots, military officers, firefighters and surgeons made decisions, they found four distinct methods: Intuitive (go with your gut), Rule-Based (if-thens you’ve learned from experience), Analytic (compare two or more options) and Creative (improvise!).

The key finding, though, is that most people default to one method, over and over again, whether it makes sense or not. (Which is why your Aunt Martha always brings that potato salad to Thanksgiving.)

Some basic tips:

• Treat these four methods as a toolkit, rather than a personality trait. Build the habit of asking yourself: which mode am I in, and is it the right one? (For Aunt Martha: maybe analytic is better than gut?)

• Waiting for certainty is usually the wrong instinct. Better decisions come from committing to a choice — but then choosing deliberate reassessment points, which are on the calendar, where you can change your mind.

• Remember that humans don’t automatically learn from failure (though we often believe we do). Rather, studies show we tend to look away from bad choices because they’re painful to remember. So force yourself to analyze what went wrong. (Aunt Martha, might we recall last year’s vomitorium?)

Finally, when studies look at ‘superforecasters‘ — people who consistently make better choices — they found that IQ, fancy credentials, and domain expertise matters less than having the right cognitive habits. The best choosers:

• Actively seek out views that contradict their own.

• Think in probabilities rather than binary yes/no.

• Keep score on past predictions rather than conveniently forgetting their mistakes.

But how do I influence other people’s decisions?

To start, don’t present them with too many choices. In one experiment grocery store customers were presented with 24 varieties of jam to sample and buy, while others were presented with just 6 varieties. Shoppers were much more likely to sample and buy when there were fewer choices. Why? Choice overload often paralyzes us.

Second, figure out if the person you are talking to is a maximizer (they want to find the best choice) or a satisficer (any choice that works is okay). The tricky thing is, we’re sometimes maximizers (I will only buy the finest blueberries!) while also being satisficers (but I don’t care if my car is 12 different colors!) The only way to figure out what approach someone is using for this decision is to ask leading questions (so, if we’re choosing between the best pen on earth, or something cheap with ink, how much do you care?).

Finally, if someone feels like you are trying to control them by limiting their choices (it’s either eat dinner or go to your room!), they’ll often make the choice that protects their autonomy (I hate you! I’m going to my room! Also, I’m starving!), even if it’s suboptimal.

On the other hand, if they feel limits are self-selected (what, pray tell, would you like to eat first from this plate of veggies?), they’ll more often make the decision you’re hoping for.

Okay, but let’s get real: How do I influence my kids’ decisions? Or my work colleagues’ choices? (Or my own?)

Let’s start with some basic hacks that can improve your and your co-workers’ decision-making:

• Decisions about simple issues (where should we go for lunch?) are best tackled with conscious thought. But decisions about complex matters (should we have a baby?) are better approached by adding unconscious deliberation to the mix. So, gather information consciously (Jim has a baby and he’s rad!), and then stop thinking and do something else before making a decision (maybe we should sleep on it?).

• Look for people to give you advice (”what you want to do is ...”), but make sure they disagree with you. People often unconsciously seek advisors with similar views, which creates a false sense of certainty. Instead, find an argumentative jerk — and then figure out why they’re wrong (or admit they’ve got a point.)

When it comes to teaching your kids to make good decisions:

• Help them learn how to listen to their gut. One experiment found that younger children actually make slightly better decisions than older children — because the older they got, the more they tended to ignore additional information and rely on social cues. So, teaching kids to slow down and ask themselves “what am I ignoring?” is more helpful than “here’s how to find the right answer.”

• Also, let them feel regret over a bad choice. Our instinct, as parents, is to make our kids feel better when they screw up. But a series of experiments showed that children who experience regret after a bad decision make better decisions in the future. Regret forces us to learn (”what would have happened if I chose differently?“). Sitting with a negative feeling is how we improve.

When it comes to really big decisions (should I take that new job or not?):

• Pretend you are six months in the future. The fear of quitting, for instance, is almost always anchored to visible, short-term losses. So, instead, ask yourself about the odds that you’ll be happy in six months in your current job (”zero percent“), versus the odds you’ll be happy in a new job (”I don’t know“). “I don’t know” probably beats zero.

• And, if you’re wondering how should I evaluate a job offer?, luckily there’s a really good Reddit post on that!

This baker decided to toss out a batch of dough - without asking himself ‘what about the yeast?’

Recommendations!

Some readers said they like it when I make recommendations, and wanted more. So here you go!

A BOOK YOU SHOULD ABSOLUTELY READ: Angel Down, which won the Pulitzer this year. The author usually writes sci-fi and horror, and so it’s kind of crazy he wrote this book (and that it won). The entire book is one long sentence — which sounds annoying, but is actually awesome.

TWO INSTAGRAM ACCOUNTS I LOVE are IAmThirtyAF (even though I am older than 30, which isn’t actually all that old?). And, if you have a spouse who runs ultramarathons which has an ... interesting ... impact on her family, I recommend YaBoyScottJurek, about half of which I don’t understand (but my wife does).

THINGS TO WATCH AND LISTEN TO: Have you ever wondered what happens if a famous musician does karaoke and no one realizes who he is? You’re in luck! And if you are, in fact, older than thirty, odds are good you’ll like this cover of Fade Into You or this cover of Jesus Etc. Finally, if you are watching the World Cup, let me recommend viewing it on Telemundo, which is the only way to watch it for free in our household, and is fantastic. (Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooal!)

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What’s the best decision you ever made? How did you make it? Hit reply and let me know or tell us in the comments!

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